Android shakes up mobile

April 07, 2011

Google's Android is getting into its stride and everyone else is suffering

Google's Android operating system now looks set on complete market domination. The search engine giant's mobile operating system has taken a couple of years to get into its stride but it is now ready to take on all comers, and the likes of RIM, Nokia and Apple could be hard-pressed to keep up.

The numbers

In a new note released this week IT analyst heavyweight Gartner came out with a prediction that not only would Android gain market share in the coming year but it would also command nearly half of the global smartphone market by the end of 2012. The research house said that it predicted worldwide smartphone sales to reach 468 million units in 2011, a hefty 57.7% increase over 2010. By the end of this year Android would be the dominant player in the smartphone operating system market, Gartner said. By the end of 2012 it expects Android to account for 49% of all smartphone OS sales.

In comparison, Gartner expects Symbian to drop right down to just 5% market share by the end of 2012, RIM down to 12% and Apple's iOS to climb slightly to 19%. Microsoft's mobile operating systems are predicted to reach just 11% by the end of 2012.

Gartner is not alone in its bullish predictions for Android. ComScore also recently released its smartphone data for the US, saying that between November 2010 and February 2011 Android-based shipments climbed 7% to around 33% overall market share. The big loser according to ComScore, was RIM which lost a full 5% in the three-month period, while Apple remained largely steady. All told, Apple's share of the US market stands at around 25%, RIM slightly higher at 29% and Android at 33%.

The bottom line

It's not just the predicted market shares that provide insight into what is a rapidly changing mobile market. A look at some of the financial numbers also shows the change. One of the most interesting is the rapid and seemingly unstoppable rise of HTC. This week the Taiwan-based mobile maker did what most would never have predicted just a short while ago: it surpassed both RIM and Nokia in market capitalisation. On paper, the once barely-known mobile maker is now worth 30 times more on market than it was five years ago.

Not only has HTC passed RIM in market value but it has also eclipsed the now-flailing Nokia - once the superpower of mobile phones. At current market prices HTC is valued at US$33.9 billion, Nokia at US$32.8 billion and RIM at US$28.5 billion.

Not all happy

Although Android now looks certain to claim mobile's top smartphone spot there are one or two bumps along the road. One of these is the growing chorus from users and developers that there is too much fragmentation in the Android market. Moving rapidly, as Google has, has meant that different mobile phones often use different versions of the Android software, forcing developers to pick the version they develop for. Likewise, individual handset makers have typically customised the Android interface for each of their products.

Fragmentation is often cited by Android rivals such as Apple as a major failing. Now a new study tries to put some numbers to those claims.

In a study of 250 working Android developers the study reported that 86% of the developers thought fragmentation was an issue for them. These concerns ranged from being a mild irritant to being a significant problem in their lives. Only 14% of the developers in the study felt that fragmentation was not an issue at all.

Concerns around fragmentation may make little difference to Android's continued upward rise, especially as Google appears to be considering steps to reduce variations in Android products released into the market.

Alastair Otter

http://mybroadband.co.za/news/cellular/19563-Android-shakes-mobile.html

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